Education and Climate Change: Synthesizing the Evidence to Guide Future Research

2025

The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly visible across all aspects of the U.S. PreK-12 education system. Schools are both vulnerable to climate change and uniquely positioned to be part of the solution. We synthesize interdisciplinary research and data to illustrate the bi-directional relationship between schools and our changing climate. Drawing on this evidence, we map out a research agenda around five interrelated dimensions to inform policy and practice: 1) reducing schools’ environmental impacts, 2) making schools more resilient to environmental pressures, 3) supporting students and staff affected by climate change, 4) teaching about climate science, exposing students to the natural world, and providing training for jobs that advance sustainable practices, and 5) expanding the role of schools as community hubs that support broader awareness about climate change and care for the planet.

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U.S. Schools’ Proximity to Environmental Hazard Sites: A National Analysis

2026

We conduct a nationwide assessment of U.S. PreK-12 public and private schools’ proximity to known environmental hazard sites tracked by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Superfund sites, brownfields, and Toxics Release Inventory facilities. Prior research documents a range of negative health and academic consequences for youth exposed to legacy contaminants and pollution released by these sites. Nearly 10,000 schools (8%), enrolling 3.36 million students and employing 480,000 teachers and staff, are located within a quarter mile (~400 m) of a hazardous site where exposure risk is most acute. Approximately 44% of schools are located within one mile—a distance where negative exposure effects are well documented. Risks are borne disproportionately by Native, Black, Hispanic, and low-income students who are 124%, 86%, 43%, and 40% more likely to attend schools within a quarter mile of a hazardous site. Proximity to multiple hazards and higher-risk sites is also highly inequitable.

Suggested Citation:

Suggested citation

Malik, S., Kraft, M. A., & Falken, G. T. (2026). US schools' proximity to environmental hazard sites: A national analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(33), Article e2609567123.

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Understanding High Schools’ Effects on Longer-Term Outcomes

2026

Improving education and labor market outcomes for low-income students is critical for advancing socioeconomic mobility in the United States. We use longitudinal data on five cohorts of ninth-grade students to explore how Massachusetts public high schools affect the longer term outcomes of students, with a special focus on students from low-income families. Using detailed administrative and student survey data, we estimate school value-added impacts on college outcomes and earnings. Observationally similar students who attend a school at the 80th percentile of the value-added distribution instead of a school at the 20th percentile are 11% more likely to enroll in college, are 31% more likely to graduate from a 4-year college, and earn 25% (or $10,500) more annually at age 30. On average, schools that improve students’ longer run outcomes the most are those that improve their 10th-grade test scores and increase their college plans the most.

Suggested Citation:

Suggested citation

Mbekeani, P. P., Papay, J. P., Mantil, A., & Murnane, R. J. (2026). Understanding high schools' effects on longer-term outcomes. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 45(2), Article e70093. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70093

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The Consequences of High School Exit Examinations for Low-Performing Urban Students: Evidence From Massachusetts

2010

In specifying a minimum passing score on examinations that students must pass to obtain a high school diploma, states divide a continuous performance measure into dichotomous categories. Thus, students with scores near the cutoff either pass or fail despite having essentially equal skills. The authors evaluate the causal effects of barely passing or failing a high school exit examination on the probability of graduation using a regression discontinuity design. For most Massachusetts students, barely failing their first 10th grade mathematics or English language arts (ELA) examination does not affect their probability of graduating. However, low-income urban students who just fail the mathematics examination have an 8 percentage point lower graduation rate than observationally similar students who just pass. There is no analogous impact from just passing or failing the ELA exit examination. For these urban, low-income students, barely failing the mathematics test does not affect the likelihood of on-time grade promotion, but it does cause students to be 4 percentage points more likely to drop out of school in the year following the test. Low-income urban students are just as likely to retake the test as equally skilled suburban students, but they have less success on retest.

Suggested Citation:

Suggested citation

Papay, J. P., Murnane, R. J., & Willett, J. B. (2010). The consequences of high school exit examinations for low-performing urban students: Evidence from Massachusetts. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 32(1), 5–23. https://doi.org/10.3102/0162373709352530

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High-School Exit Examinations and the Schooling Decisions of Teenagers: Evidence From Regression-Discontinuity Approaches

2014

We examine whether barely failing one or more state-mandated high school exit examinations in Massachusetts affects the probability that students enroll in college. We extend the exit examination literature in two ways. First, we explore longer term effects of failing these tests. We find that barely failing an exit examination, for students on the margin of passing, reduces the probability of college attendance several years after the test. Second, we explore potential interactions that arise because students must pass exit examinations in both mathematics and English language arts in order to graduate from high school. We adopt a variety of regression-discontinuity approaches to address situations where multiple variables assign individuals to a range of treatments; some of these approaches enable us to examine whether the effect of barely failing one examination depends on student performance on the other. We document the range of causal effects estimated by each approach. We argue that each approach presents opportunities and limitations for making causal inferences in such situations and that the choice of approach should match the question of interest.

Suggested Citation:

Suggested citation

Papay, J. P., Murnane, R. J., & Willett, J. B. (2014). High-school exit examinations and the schooling decisions of teenagers: A multi-dimensional regression-discontinuity analysis. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 7(1), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2013.819398

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Income-Based Inequality in Educational Outcomes: Learning From State Longitudinal Data Systems

2015

We report results from our long-standing research partnership with the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. We make two primary contributions. First, we illustrate the wide range of informative analyses that can be conducted using a state longitudinal data system and the advantages of examining evidence from multiple cohorts of students. Second, we document large income-based gaps in educational attainments, including high school graduation rates and college-going rates. Importantly, we show that income-related gaps in both educational credentials and academic skill have narrowed substantially over the past several years in Massachusetts.

Suggested Citation:

Suggested citation

Papay, J. P., Murnane, R. J., & Willett, J. B. (2015). Income-based inequality in educational outcomes: Learning from state longitudinal data systems. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 37(1_suppl), 29S–52S. https://doi.org/10.3102/0162373715576364

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The Impact of Test Score Labels on Human-Capital Investment Decisions

2021

Students receive abundant information about their educational performance, but how this information affects future educational-investment decisions is not well understood. Increasingly, results from state-mandated standardized tests are an important source of information. Students receive a score and a label that summarizes their performance on these tests. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we find persistent effects of earning a more positive label on the college-going decisions of urban, low-income students. These findings are important not only for understanding students’ educational-investment decisions and the consequences of state-testing practices, but also for researchers using the regression-discontinuity design.

Suggested Citation:

Suggested citation

Papay, J. P., Murnane, R. J., & Willett, J. B. (2016). The impact of test-score labels on human-capital investment decisions. Journal of Human Resources, 51(2), 357–388. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.51.2.0713-5837R

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