Understanding High Schools’ Effects on Longer-Term Outcomes

Improving education and labor market outcomes for low-income students is critical for advancing socioeconomic mobility in the United States. We use longitudinal data on five cohorts of ninth-grade students to explore how Massachusetts public high schools affect the longer term outcomes of students, with a special focus on students from low-income families. Using detailed administrative and student survey data, we estimate school value-added impacts on college outcomes and earnings. Observationally similar students who attend a school at the 80th percentile of the value-added distribution instead of a school at the 20th percentile are 11% more likely to enroll in college, are 31% more likely to graduate from a 4-year college, and earn 25% (or $10,500) more annually at age 30. On average, schools that improve students’ longer run outcomes the most are those that improve their 10th-grade test scores and increase their college plans the most.